Better decision-making
- Philip Brophy
- Mar 28
- 3 min read
Avoid blinkered thinking • 3 min read
Research from Harvard Business Review shows that improving one’s ability to think in terms of probability not only prevents people from certain cognitive biases, but helps them to better predict outcomes by looking at the frequency of past examples.
So, for future decisions, try thinking: “How often does this usually happen?”
Introduction
We’ve looked at how we can increase self-awareness in our decision-making by using the BIAS framework.
We’ll now look at the types of bias that can negatively impact our decision-making.
Fairer decisions in practice
To help us better understand cognitive biases that can impact our decision-making, it’s best to identify the different types we can avoid. These are:
The framing bias
This is when we make decisions based on whether information is presented with positive or negative connotations, e.g. how news is narrated or how data is presented in charts.
For example, we might invest in shares differently depending on how the opportunity is presented to us — seeing data only through the lens of loss or gain.
Simply put, if we see the same facts presented in a different way, we’ll be likely to draw different conclusions. This is why it’s important to keep an open mind while drawing on a wide range of data.
The anchoring bias
This is when we rely too much on the first piece of information we receive about a topic.
For example, when we make a plan, we can often dismiss any newer incoming information that could lead to better outcomes.
We’ll instead consistently use our initial data as a reference point and anchor for everything else — seeing it as the only way forward. This means that we’ll be unable to see anything else objectively, or as having its own merit.
Confirmation bias
Too tempting to resist, we can seek out information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs, often at the expense of contrary (and very legitimate) information.
Projection bias
Projection bias is a self-forecasting error where we make short-sighted decisions based on an overestimation of how much our future selves will share the same values as our current selves. We can also make the assumption that everyone else will share these ideas.
Let’s take this example: We take on too many staff when we have an excess of clients, assuming that the workflow and demand will be the same a few months down the line.
Status-quo bias
This is when we prefer to keep things as they are. We’ll view any deviation from this baseline as a loss — for example, when we stick with a project consultant even though another consultant appears on the scene, offering a cheaper, higher quality option.
Key takeaways
Resist using the first piece of information you receive as the baseline against which all else should be measured. Try to keep an open mind to alternative data that could further enrich your decision-making.
Avoid confirmation bias — this means leaning into data that confirms your existing beliefs.
Always analyse your data in a fair way that includes the relevant stakeholders. This will eliminate projection bias, meaning that you assume everyone else will share your beliefs.
Think big, act small
For your next decision, how about ensuring an absolute intention that all stakeholders agree upon?
Try to resist setting unrealistic expectations without first looking at any constraints that could impact your decision-making.
Content sources
Psych Today, 2019, Gleb Tsipursky, 8 Steps to the Best Work and Life Decisions
Forbes, 2020, Forbes Business Development Council, 16 Key Steps to Better Business Decision Making
Forbes, 2021, Hanna Hart May, The Four C’s of Decision-Making
Harvard Business Review, 2018, Laura Schneider and Walter Frick, 3 Ways to improve your Decision Making and Problem Solving
Harvard Business Review, 2022, Cheryl Strauss Einhorn, Better Decisions by Challenging Your Expectations
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